by Mintz
[Title Page and Publication Information]: The title page and publication details for Ilse Mintz's study on American exports during business cycles from 1879 to 1958. Includes copyright information, library cataloging data, and printing details. [NBER Officers and Board of Directors 1961]: A comprehensive listing of the officers, directors at large, university-appointed directors, and research staff of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) as of 1961. It features prominent economists such as Arthur F. Burns, Milton Friedman, and Simon Kuznets. [Relation of the Directors to NBER Work]: The official statement regarding the mission of the National Bureau of Economic Research, emphasizing the presentation of economic facts in a scientific and impartial manner and the Board's responsibility in maintaining these standards. [National Bureau of Economic Research: Relation of the Directors to the Work and Publications]: This segment outlines the formal resolutions governing the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), specifically detailing the procedures for the appointment of Directors of Research and the rigorous review process required for publication. It emphasizes the institution's commitment to presenting economic facts in a scientific and impartial manner, including the role of special manuscript committees and the rights of board members to express dissent. [Table of Contents and List of Tables and Charts]: A comprehensive table of contents and lists of tables and charts for the study. It outlines the structure of the work, which covers the appraisal of export declines, the relationship between exports and output, and the correlation between U.S. business cycles and world trade cycles from 1879 to 1958. [Acknowledgments and Chapter 1: An Appraisal of the 1957-59 Decline in Exports]: The author acknowledges contributors and introduces the analysis of the 1957-59 export decline. The chapter provides historical perspective, comparing the severity and duration of the recent contraction to eight other cyclical movements since 1921. It argues that while the 1957-59 decline was sharp, it followed an extraordinary boom (partly due to the Suez crisis) and left exports at a higher level than previous troughs. The analysis also touches on export quantities versus prices and the U.S. share of world trade. [Chapter 2: Exports and Output, 1879-1958]: This chapter examines the role of exports within the broader American economy. It notes that while exports are a small and diminishing part of total national output (declining from roughly 7% to 4.6%), they contribute significantly to cyclical instability. The author compares export changes to other components of final demand like construction and producers' durable equipment, finding that exports accounted for a substantial portion (up to 16%) of output drops during post-WWII recessions. [Chapter 3: Exports and United States Business Cycles]: Mintz analyzes the conformity of U.S. exports to domestic business cycles. Before 1913, exports appeared largely independent of domestic cycles, driven more by secular growth and foreign demand. However, since 1921, there has been a marked shift toward positive conformity, where exports typically rise during business expansions and fall during contractions. The chapter explores the theoretical relationship between domestic business activity, export prices, and export quantities, noting that the increased instability of exports in recent decades contrasts with the relative stability of the domestic economy. [Chapter 4: Exports and World Trade Cycles]: This chapter introduces a quarterly series on world imports (excluding U.S. imports) to represent global demand. The analysis shows a near-perfect correlation between world trade cycles and U.S. export turns. While the relationship was always close, the data suggests that the ties between U.S. exports and world trade became even more intimate after World War II. The author also notes that world trade was significantly more stable in the 1883-1913 era compared to the interwar and postwar periods. [Chapter 5: World Imports and United States Business Cycles]: Mintz investigates whether the shift in export conformity is due to a shift in the relationship between world trade cycles and U.S. business cycles. The findings indicate that before WWI, the association was weak, but it strengthened at business peaks in later periods. While world imports have become more closely associated with U.S. business cycles over time, this shift was less drastic than the shift in U.S. exports themselves, suggesting that domestic factors also played a role in changing export behavior during contractions. [Chapter 6: Exports and Business Cycles Further Examined]: This chapter uncovers a 'peculiar' M-shaped pattern in export behavior that was consistent across both the pre-WWI and post-WWI periods. Exports typically rise in the first half of a business phase (expansion or contraction) and retard or fall in the second half. This systematic 'alternately positive and inverse' response explains why exports appeared irregular when measured across full phases. The author also notes a consistent tendency for exports to lag behind domestic business at troughs, likely reflecting a lag in the recovery of customer countries. [Chapter 7: Comparison of the Cyclical Patterns of Exports and World Imports]: Mintz compares the intraphase patterns of U.S. exports and world imports to isolate the effects of foreign demand. The analysis shows that while world imports account for some of the retardation in export growth during the later stages of business cycles, they cannot explain it entirely—especially before WWI. The U.S. share of world markets typically rose at the start of domestic expansions/contractions and fell toward the end, suggesting that domestic supply factors (like capacity constraints or price changes) influenced the export pattern independently of world demand. [Chapter 8: Exports and World Imports in Co- and Counter-Phases]: This chapter uses a 'co- and counter-phase' method to study the combined impact of domestic and world cycles. A key discovery is that before WWI, the domestic influence on exports was actually inverse: given rising world trade, U.S. exports grew faster during domestic contractions than expansions. Since 1921, this has shifted to a positive relationship. The chapter reinforces the finding that exports almost always move in the direction of world trade, but their rate of change is modulated by the domestic business cycle stage. [Chapter 9: Summary]: The concluding summary synthesizes the study's findings. It reiterates that while the over-all conformity of exports to business cycles shifted after WWI, the underlying intraphase pattern (the M-shape) remained remarkably stable over eighty years. Foreign demand is the dominant factor in export direction, but domestic factors—possibly related to the supply of agricultural commodities like cotton—create systematic variations in the rate of growth. The author concludes that exports have historically played both pro-cyclical and counter-cyclical roles depending on the stage of the business cycle. [Appendices A-E: Data, Methodology, and Supplementary Charts]: The appendices provide technical details on the data and methods used in the study. Appendix A describes the construction of the U.S. export and world import series (1879-1959), including adjustments for dollar devaluation and seasonal variations. Appendix B defines the National Bureau's business cycle concepts and measurement techniques (conformity indexes, amplitudes, cycle stages). Appendices C, D, and E provide detailed tables and charts of individual cycle patterns and comparisons of different world import series.
The title page and publication details for Ilse Mintz's study on American exports during business cycles from 1879 to 1958. Includes copyright information, library cataloging data, and printing details.
Read full textA comprehensive listing of the officers, directors at large, university-appointed directors, and research staff of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) as of 1961. It features prominent economists such as Arthur F. Burns, Milton Friedman, and Simon Kuznets.
Read full textThe official statement regarding the mission of the National Bureau of Economic Research, emphasizing the presentation of economic facts in a scientific and impartial manner and the Board's responsibility in maintaining these standards.
Read full textThis segment outlines the formal resolutions governing the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), specifically detailing the procedures for the appointment of Directors of Research and the rigorous review process required for publication. It emphasizes the institution's commitment to presenting economic facts in a scientific and impartial manner, including the role of special manuscript committees and the rights of board members to express dissent.
Read full textA comprehensive table of contents and lists of tables and charts for the study. It outlines the structure of the work, which covers the appraisal of export declines, the relationship between exports and output, and the correlation between U.S. business cycles and world trade cycles from 1879 to 1958.
Read full textThe author acknowledges contributors and introduces the analysis of the 1957-59 export decline. The chapter provides historical perspective, comparing the severity and duration of the recent contraction to eight other cyclical movements since 1921. It argues that while the 1957-59 decline was sharp, it followed an extraordinary boom (partly due to the Suez crisis) and left exports at a higher level than previous troughs. The analysis also touches on export quantities versus prices and the U.S. share of world trade.
Read full textThis chapter examines the role of exports within the broader American economy. It notes that while exports are a small and diminishing part of total national output (declining from roughly 7% to 4.6%), they contribute significantly to cyclical instability. The author compares export changes to other components of final demand like construction and producers' durable equipment, finding that exports accounted for a substantial portion (up to 16%) of output drops during post-WWII recessions.
Read full textMintz analyzes the conformity of U.S. exports to domestic business cycles. Before 1913, exports appeared largely independent of domestic cycles, driven more by secular growth and foreign demand. However, since 1921, there has been a marked shift toward positive conformity, where exports typically rise during business expansions and fall during contractions. The chapter explores the theoretical relationship between domestic business activity, export prices, and export quantities, noting that the increased instability of exports in recent decades contrasts with the relative stability of the domestic economy.
Read full textThis chapter introduces a quarterly series on world imports (excluding U.S. imports) to represent global demand. The analysis shows a near-perfect correlation between world trade cycles and U.S. export turns. While the relationship was always close, the data suggests that the ties between U.S. exports and world trade became even more intimate after World War II. The author also notes that world trade was significantly more stable in the 1883-1913 era compared to the interwar and postwar periods.
Read full textMintz investigates whether the shift in export conformity is due to a shift in the relationship between world trade cycles and U.S. business cycles. The findings indicate that before WWI, the association was weak, but it strengthened at business peaks in later periods. While world imports have become more closely associated with U.S. business cycles over time, this shift was less drastic than the shift in U.S. exports themselves, suggesting that domestic factors also played a role in changing export behavior during contractions.
Read full textThis chapter uncovers a 'peculiar' M-shaped pattern in export behavior that was consistent across both the pre-WWI and post-WWI periods. Exports typically rise in the first half of a business phase (expansion or contraction) and retard or fall in the second half. This systematic 'alternately positive and inverse' response explains why exports appeared irregular when measured across full phases. The author also notes a consistent tendency for exports to lag behind domestic business at troughs, likely reflecting a lag in the recovery of customer countries.
Read full textMintz compares the intraphase patterns of U.S. exports and world imports to isolate the effects of foreign demand. The analysis shows that while world imports account for some of the retardation in export growth during the later stages of business cycles, they cannot explain it entirely—especially before WWI. The U.S. share of world markets typically rose at the start of domestic expansions/contractions and fell toward the end, suggesting that domestic supply factors (like capacity constraints or price changes) influenced the export pattern independently of world demand.
Read full textThis chapter uses a 'co- and counter-phase' method to study the combined impact of domestic and world cycles. A key discovery is that before WWI, the domestic influence on exports was actually inverse: given rising world trade, U.S. exports grew faster during domestic contractions than expansions. Since 1921, this has shifted to a positive relationship. The chapter reinforces the finding that exports almost always move in the direction of world trade, but their rate of change is modulated by the domestic business cycle stage.
Read full textThe concluding summary synthesizes the study's findings. It reiterates that while the over-all conformity of exports to business cycles shifted after WWI, the underlying intraphase pattern (the M-shape) remained remarkably stable over eighty years. Foreign demand is the dominant factor in export direction, but domestic factors—possibly related to the supply of agricultural commodities like cotton—create systematic variations in the rate of growth. The author concludes that exports have historically played both pro-cyclical and counter-cyclical roles depending on the stage of the business cycle.
Read full textThe appendices provide technical details on the data and methods used in the study. Appendix A describes the construction of the U.S. export and world import series (1879-1959), including adjustments for dollar devaluation and seasonal variations. Appendix B defines the National Bureau's business cycle concepts and measurement techniques (conformity indexes, amplitudes, cycle stages). Appendices C, D, and E provide detailed tables and charts of individual cycle patterns and comparisons of different world import series.
Read full text