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Prosperität und Depression: Eine theoretische Untersuchung der Konjunkturbewegungen
1955
by
Haberler
Business Cycle Theory
Gottfried Haberler
League of Nations
Great Depression
Acceleration Principle
Economic Policy
Price Theory
Ricardo Effect
Unemployment
Wage Rigidity
Arthur Spiethoff
Interventionism
Methodology
Monetary Theory
Production Costs
Business Cycles
Credit Expansion
Jan Tinbergen
Monetary Policy
Alvin Hansen
Arthur Cecil Pigou
Friedrich A. Hayek
Money Supply
Price Level
Velocity of Circulation
Alfred Marshall
Banking
Discount Rate
Expectations
Gold Standard
Open Market Operations
Capital Theory
Central Banking
World War I
Joseph Schumpeter
Knut Wicksell
Underconsumption
Fritz Machlup
Irving Fisher
Lionel Robbins
Ludwig von Mises
Natural Rate of Interest
Saving
Forced Saving
Investment
John Maynard Keynes
Roundabout Production
Austrian School
Economic Crisis
Planned Economy
Price Mechanism
Inflation
Depreciation
Capital Consumption
Stabilization
Overproduction
Boom and Bust
Wilhelm Ropke
Deflation
Gold Reserves
Hoarding
Money Market
Protectionism
Economic Recovery
Free Banking
Balance of Payments
Exchange Control
Exchange Rates
Capital Movements
Comparative Advantage
International Trade
Fixed Capital
Gustav Cassel
Economic Goods
Interest Rates
Capital Goods
Ragnar Frisch
Speculation
Capital Intensity
Wages
Profit and Loss
Uncertainty
Capital Accumulation
Diminishing Returns
Effective Demand
Malinvestment
Reparations
Emil Lederer
Jean Charles Léonard de Sismondi
Thomas Malthus
Neutral Money
Gunnar Myrdal
Stockholm School
Human Action
Elasticity of Demand
Labor Mobility
Income Distribution
Liquidity
Joan Robinson
Eugen von Bohm-Bawerk
John Hicks
Productivity of Capital
Time Preference
Oskar Lange
Interest Theory
Keynesian Economics
Classical Economics
Multiplier
Infrastructure
National Income
Jacob Viner
Innovation
Insurance
Equilibrium
Mathematical Economics
Real Income
Welfare Economics
Economic Development
Opportunity Cost
Legal Tender
Deficit Spending
Capital Flight
Trade Unions
Nicholas Kaldor
Entrepreneurship
Competition
Devaluation
Fiscal Policy
Oskar Morgenstern
Trade Policy
Banknotes
Purchasing Power
Paul Samuelson
David Ricardo
Frank Knight
War Economy
Federal Reserve
James Tobin
Quantity Theory of Money
Neoclassical Economics
Say's Law
Jean-Baptiste Say
Economic History
Valuation
William Stanley Jevons
Agriculture
Karl Marx
Milton Friedman
Productivity
Taxation
Table of Contents · 238 segments
1
Title Page and Publication Information
bibliography
2
Preface to the First Edition
essay
3
Preface to the Second Edition of 1939
essay
4
Preface to the Third Edition of 1941
essay
5
Preface to the Second German Edition
essay
6
Table of Contents: Introduction and Opening Part I Chapters
chapter
7
Detailed Table of Contents for Parts II–III and German Edition Appendix
chapter
8
Introduction: Purpose, Theory Analysis, and Synthetic Aim
essay
9
Preliminaries §1: Plural Causes of Business Cycles and Compatibility of Explanations
theoretical
10
Preliminaries §1: Classification of Causal Factors and Exogenous versus Endogenous Theories
theoretical
11
Preliminaries §1: Inherent Instability and Mechanical Analogy for Cyclical Motion
theoretical
12
Preliminaries §2: Method for Analyzing Business Cycle Theories
theoretical
13
Pure Monetary Theory: Introductory Remarks on Money Turnover
chapter
14
Hawtrey’s Monetary Cycle Mechanism: Credit Expansion, Crisis, Depression, and Recovery
theoretical
15
Hawtrey on Periodicity, Fixed Capital, and Stabilization Policy
theoretical
16
International Complications and Final Assessment of Hawtrey’s Theory
theoretical
17
General Characteristics of Overinvestment Theories
theoretical
18
Monetary Overinvestment Theories: Wicksellian Interest Theory and the Beginning of the Upswing
theoretical
19
Monetary Overinvestment: Upswing, Forced Saving, and the Unsustainable Crisis Turn
theoretical
20
Upper Turning Point Analogy: Overcapitalization in a Planned Economy
theoretical
21
Investable Funds, Capital Scarcity, and the Stopping of Expansion
theoretical
22
Hayek's Capital Scarcity Mechanism, Accounting Profits, and the Start of Depression
theoretical
23
Losses in the Boom and Neisser's Critique of Hayek
theoretical
24
Why Expansion Must End and the Limits of Price Stabilization
theoretical
25
Decline: Readjustment and Secondary Deflation
theoretical
26
The Struggle for Liquidity During Depression
theoretical
27
Lower Turning Point: Effective Money Supply and Revival of Credit Demand
theoretical
28
Expansion from Partial Employment
theoretical
29
Cycle Rhythm: Mises, Banking Policy, and Interest-Rate Criteria
theoretical
30
Seasonal Credit Demand and the Limits of a Simple Cycle Formula
theoretical
31
International Difficulties: Balance of Payments and the Gold Standard
theoretical
32
International Capital Movements and Trade Composition
theoretical
33
Concluding Appraisal of Monetary Overinvestment Theory
theoretical
34
Nonmonetary Overinvestment Theories: General Characteristics and the Upswing
theoretical
35
The Crisis: Capital Scarcity, Overproduction, and Cassel’s Variant
theoretical
36
The Downturn and Depression
theoretical
37
Recovery, Schumpeter’s Entrepreneur, Rhythm, and Reinvestment Cycles
theoretical
38
International Complications
theoretical
39
Introduction to the Acceleration Principle and Overinvestment Theory
theoretical
40
Statement of the Acceleration Principle
theoretical
41
Acceleration from Durable Capital Goods
theoretical
42
Acceleration in Durable Consumer Goods
theoretical
43
Acceleration through Inventories and Stocks
theoretical
44
General Form of the Acceleration Principle
theoretical
45
Limitations of the Acceleration Principle
theoretical
46
Consumer Demand, Capital-Goods Production, and the First Impulse
theoretical
47
Factors Determining the Net Investment Effect of Demand Shifts
theoretical
48
Financing, Credit Expansion, and Integration with Overinvestment Theory
theoretical
49
Reasons for the Collapse of the Boom
theoretical
50
Chapter 4 Introduction: Cost Changes, Horizontal Disequilibria, and Over-Indebtedness
chapter
51
Production Costs and Mitchell’s Cyclical Cost Mechanism
theoretical
52
Analytical Elements in Cost and Efficiency Explanations
theoretical
53
Horizontal Disequilibrium and the Possibility of General Depression
theoretical
54
Error Theories, Forecasting Mistakes, and Horizontal Maladjustment
theoretical
55
Relations Between Horizontal and Vertical Disequilibrium
theoretical
56
Fisher’s Debt-Deflation Theory in the Cycle Framework
theoretical
57
How Debts Intensify Deflation
theoretical
58
Over-Indebtedness as Cause Versus Amplifier of Crisis
theoretical
59
Financial Organization, Fixed Money Claims, and Depression Severity
theoretical
60
Chapter 5 Introduction: History and Scope of Underconsumption Theories
chapter
61
Forms of Underconsumption Theory: Deflation, Secular Price Decline, and Oversaving
theoretical
62
Insufficient Consumer Demand versus Capital Scarcity as the Cause of the Boom’s Collapse
theoretical
63
Lagging Wages, Excess Profits, and Overinvestment
theoretical
64
Chapter 6: Psychological Theories — Introduction: Psychological and Economic Factors
theoretical
65
Analysis of the Psychological Factor in Business-Cycle Explanation
theoretical
66
Summary: Compatibility of Psychological Theories with Other Business-Cycle Theories
theoretical
67
Introduction: Harvest Cycle Theories and Agriculture in the Business Cycle
chapter
68
Closed Economy Assumption and Real Elasticity Theories
theoretical
69
Critique of Demand Elasticity in Money and Effort
theoretical
70
Raw Materials, Real Wages, and Rural-Urban Labor Migration
theoretical
71
Non-Agricultural Consumer Goods and Farmers' Purchasing Power
theoretical
72
Investment, Saving, International Aspects, and Summary of Agricultural Influences
theoretical
73
The Industrial Cycle's Influence on Agriculture: Production Rigidity and Demand Effects
theoretical
74
Agricultural Demand, Costs, and Industrial Business Cycles
theoretical
75
Introduction to Recent Discussions of Business Cycle Theory
chapter
76
Saving and Investment: Ambiguity, Neo-Wicksellian Usage, and Keynesian Identity
theoretical
77
How Keynesian Saving-Investment Equality Appears in Inflation and Deflation
theoretical
78
Alternative Definitions: Keynes’s Treatise, Robertson’s Process Analysis, and Monetary Income
theoretical
79
Swedish Ex Ante and Ex Post Analysis, Credit-Market Curves, and the Link to Robertson
theoretical
80
Hoarding, Liquidity Preference, and the Interest Rate
theoretical
81
Keynes’s Critique of Classical Interest Theory and the Wicksellian Reply
theoretical
82
Critique of Monetary Interest Theory: Hoarding, Idle Funds, and Velocity
theoretical
83
Keynes’s Liquidity-Preference Definition of the Interest Rate
theoretical
84
Continuation on Keynes’s Interest Theory and Money Loans
theoretical
85
Liquidity Preference and the Demand for Means of Payment
theoretical
86
Keynes’s Three Motives for Holding Money
theoretical
87
Hoarding, Interest Rates, and Pure Liquidity Preference
theoretical
88
How Increased Investment Demand Affects the Interest Rate
theoretical
89
Planned Investment, Finance, and the Ex-Ante Theory of Interest
theoretical
90
Saving, Money Supply, and Infinite Elasticity in Keynesian Interest Theory
theoretical
91
Absolute Liquidity Preference, Lower Bound Interest Rates, and the Multiplier’s Psychological Premises
theoretical
92
Keynesian Determinants and the Multiplier Problem
theoretical
93
Pure Theory of the Multiplier and Marginal Propensity to Consume
theoretical
94
Practical Measurement Problems of the Multiplier
theoretical
95
Multiplier Classifications, Temporary Deviations, and Money Velocity
theoretical
96
Concluding Remarks on the Multiplier and Opening of Underemployment Theory
theoretical
97
Keynesian Underemployment, Oversaving, Cycle Explanations, and Involuntary Unemployment
theoretical
98
Money Wages, Real Wages, and Aggregate Demand
theoretical
99
Indirect Effects of Wage Cuts and Liquidity Preference
theoretical
100
Wage and Price Flexibility, Stability, and Chronic Underconsumption
theoretical
101
Disappearance of Investment Opportunities and Institutional Saving
theoretical
102
Empirical Limits of Secular Stagnation Arguments and General Equilibrium Framing
theoretical
103
Macroscopic and Microscopic Analysis in Business-Cycle Theory
theoretical
104
Static and Dynamic Theories of the Business Cycle
theoretical
105
Expectations, Sequence Analysis, and Statistical Dynamic Models
theoretical
106
Footnotes on Mathematical and Statistical Business Cycle Analysis
footnotes
107
Part Two: Summary Presentation of the Nature and Causes of Business Cycle Fluctuations
chapter
108
Chapter 9 §§1–2: Defining Crisis, Depression, Prosperity, and Criteria of Economic Conditions
chapter
109
Chapter 9 §3: The Business Cycle in General and Technical Senses
chapter
110
Chapter 9 §4: Basic Facts and Statistical Indicators of the Business Cycle
chapter
111
Chapter 9 §5: The Secular Trend and Other Components of Economic Time Series
chapter
112
Chapter 9 §6: The Business Cycle and Long Waves
chapter
113
Chapter 9 §7: Possibility of a General Theory of the Cycle
chapter
114
Chapter 9 §8: Two Regular Features of the Cycle
chapter
115
Chapter 10 Introduction: The Expansion and Contraction Process
theoretical
116
The Expansion Process with Unemployed Resources
theoretical
117
Expansion under Full or Nearly Full Employment
theoretical
118
Monetary Analysis of the Expansion Process
theoretical
119
Interest-Rate Terminology and Basic Investable-Funds Curves
theoretical
120
Demand, Investment Definitions, and Supply Sources of Investable Funds
theoretical
121
Savings and Inflation as Separate Sources of Investment Finance
theoretical
122
Supply of Savings and the Timing of Income Availability
theoretical
123
Inflationary Sources of Investable Funds
theoretical
124
Shape of the Supply Curve and Movements of Curves over Time
theoretical
125
Subdivisions of the Capital Market and the Cumulative Expansion Process
theoretical
126
Feedback Effects on the Supply of Funds
theoretical
127
Timing, Instability, and Forms of Monetary Expansion
theoretical
128
Why Capital-Goods and Durable-Goods Production Rises Faster Than Perishable Consumer-Goods Production
theoretical
129
Accelerator Principle, Financing, Forced Saving, and the Beginning of the Saving Process
theoretical
130
Time Lags in the Income Stream and Self-Acceleration of Expansion
theoretical
131
Immediate Effect of Saving
theoretical
132
Saving and Hoarding
theoretical
133
Consequences of Continued Saving
theoretical
134
Limitations: Elasticity of Money Supply During the Upswing
theoretical
135
Institutional Complications: Segmented Money and Capital Markets
theoretical
136
Saving in the Initial Stage of Expansion
theoretical
137
Saving in the Later Course of Expansion
theoretical
138
Stock-Market Wealth Effects and Saving During the Expansion
theoretical
139
Saving at the Climax of the Expansion
theoretical
140
The Contraction Process: General Mechanism and Deflation
theoretical
141
Monetary Analysis of the Contraction Process
theoretical
142
Why Capital and Durable Goods Output Falls Faster in Contraction
theoretical
143
Turning Points, Crisis and Recovery: Introduction to the Problem
chapter
144
Lower Turning Point and Random versus Organic Limiting Forces
theoretical
145
The Downturn: Method and Main Causes of Contraction
theoretical
146
Declining Resistance to Deflationary Shocks and the Opening of Organic Disequilibria
theoretical
147
Monetary and Non-Monetary Disturbances: Two Hypotheses
theoretical
148
The Purely Monetary Explanation of the Downturn
theoretical
149
Structural Disequilibria and the Acceleration Principle
theoretical
150
Credit Restriction and Derived Demand
theoretical
151
Factor Scarcity, Production Shifts, and Bottlenecks
theoretical
152
Monopolistic Factor Restrictions and Efficiency Decline
theoretical
153
Investment Decline from Insufficient Demand
theoretical
154
Unforeseen Repercussions of Demand Saturation
theoretical
155
Are These Disequilibria Inevitable?
theoretical
156
Kaldor’s Boom-Collapse Analogy and the Plan of the Recovery Analysis
theoretical
157
Main Causes of Recovery: Credit, Investment, Consumer Spending, and Policy Stimuli
theoretical
158
Why Contraction Eventually Becomes More Responsive to Expansionary Stimuli
theoretical
159
Endogenous Recovery Forces: Confidence, Investment Revival, Innovation, and Replacement Demand
theoretical
160
Money-Wage Reductions and Their Monetary Effects During Depression
theoretical
161
Competition, Hoarding, Liquidity, and Policy Implications of Wage and Price Cuts
theoretical
162
Chapter 12 Introduction: International Aspects and Method
chapter
163
Transport Costs, Localization, and the Spread of Local Expansions
theoretical
164
Simultaneous Prosperity, Depression, and Existing Tariffs
theoretical
165
Effects of Tariff Changes on Cyclical Fluctuations
theoretical
166
Tariffs, Protectionism, and Cyclical Trade Policy
theoretical
167
Capital Mobility, Interest Rate Equalization, and Goods Mobility
theoretical
168
Changes in Capital Mobility and Their Cyclical Effects
theoretical
169
Localization of Credit and the Damping of Local Booms and Depressions
theoretical
170
Credit Localization, International Propagation, and Demand Shifts
theoretical
171
Demand Diversions and Deflationary Net Effects
theoretical
172
Partial Mobility of Capital and Its Cyclical Effects
theoretical
173
Degrees of Monetary Autonomy and the Unified Money System
theoretical
174
Decentralized Banking, Localized Credit, and Gold-Standard Policy
theoretical
175
Different National Monetary Units
theoretical
176
Fixed Exchange Rates and the Possibility of Currency Change
theoretical
177
Speculation in Foreign Currencies under the Gold Standard
theoretical
178
Foreign Exchange Standards and Monetary Groups
theoretical
179
Effects of the Foreign Exchange Standard on Cyclical Transmission
theoretical
180
Variable Exchange Rates and Irregular Capital Movements
theoretical
181
Currency Devaluation: Initial Analytical Setup
theoretical
182
Effects of Devaluation on Goods Exchange
theoretical
183
World Effects of Devaluation and International Equilibrium
theoretical
184
Devaluation and Capital Movements
theoretical
185
Deflationary Effects of Capital Flight
theoretical
186
Free Exchange Rates and Monetary Independence
theoretical
187
Free Exchange Rates and Immediate Balance-of-Payments Adjustment
theoretical
188
Changes under Free Exchange Rates and Opening Comparison with the Gold Standard
theoretical
189
Floating Rates Without Capital Movements
theoretical
190
Localization of Prosperity and Depression under Floating Exchange Rates
theoretical
191
Capital Movements under Floating Exchange Rates
theoretical
192
Gold Standard Contrast, Cycle-Induced Capital Flows, Limits, Extensions, and Transition to Part III
theoretical
193
Chapter 13, §1: Further Remarks on the Theory of the Multiplier
theoretical
194
§2: The Foreign Trade Multiplier
theoretical
195
§3: Combining the Multiplier and the Acceleration Principle in Dynamic Models
theoretical
196
§4: The Problem of Turning Points
theoretical
197
§5: Hayek’s Ricardo Effect
theoretical
198
Hayek’s Ricardo Effect and Production Periods
theoretical
199
Ricardo Effect, Accelerator Principle, and Full Employment
theoretical
200
Short-Run Limits to Capital-Labor Substitution
theoretical
201
Real Wages During the Upswing and the Empirical Challenge to Hayek
theoretical
202
Price Rigidity, Wage Rigidity, and Unemployment
theoretical
203
Price and Wage Flexibility, Saving, Hoarding, and Full Employment
chapter
204
Cyclical Price Flexibility, Friction, and the Premises of Spending Policy
theoretical
205
Limits of Spending Policy at Full Employment
theoretical
206
Appendix I: Business-Cycle Indicators by Country
chapter
207
Appendix II: Production and Employment Indices by Industry Group
chapter
208
Appendix II Data Sources for Industrial Production and Employment, Continued
bibliography
209
Appendix III: The General Theory—Initial Appraisal and Aggregate-Model Context
essay
210
Appendix III: The General Theory—Investment, Liquidity Preference, Consumption Function, and Equilibrium Unemployment
theoretical
211
Keynes on Underemployment, Wage Flexibility, and the Limits of Equilibrium
theoretical
212
Say’s Law as the Core Issue in Keynes’s System
theoretical
213
Say’s Law, Monetary Neutrality, and Neoclassical Theory
theoretical
214
The Limits of the Keynesian Revolution and Keynesian Policy
essay
215
Keynes’s Originality and Influence on Economic Thought
essay
216
Names and Subject Index, Adams to Beschäftigung
bibliography
217
Register Entries: Employment, Accelerator Principle, and B Authors
bibliography
218
Register Entries: C–D Topics and Authors
bibliography
219
Register Entries: E Topics from Efficiency to Exports
bibliography
220
Register Entries: F Authors, Debt-Deflation, and Free Exchange Rates
bibliography
221
Register Entries: Money, Gold Standard, Marginal Analysis, and Great Britain
bibliography
222
Register Entries: H Authors, Monetary Theory, Hoarding, and Liquidity
bibliography
223
Register Entries: Imports, Inflation, Investment, and J Authors
bibliography
224
Register Entries: Kahn, Keynes, Capital, Business Cycles, Credit, and Crises
bibliography
225
Register Entries: Agriculture, Liquidity, Wages, Localization, and L Authors
bibliography
226
Register Entries: M Authors and Macro-Micro Analysis
bibliography
227
Index Entries M–Z (Register, Continued)
bibliography
228
Further Remarks on the Pigou Effect
essay
229
Pigou Effect, Wage and Price Flexibility, and Hansen's Objection
theoretical
230
Deflation Policy, Wealth-Saving Relation, Secular Stagnation, and Metzler on Monetary Policy
theoretical
231
Remarks on the Current State of Business Cycle Theory: Introduction
essay
232
Business Cycle Theory: Effective Demand, Price Rigidity, and Policy Implications
essay
233
Hicks, the Multiplier-Accelerator Model, and Critiques of the Acceleration Principle
essay
234
Limits of the Accelerator Principle and Inventory Cycles
theoretical
235
Modified Accelerator Theories: Tinbergen, Kaldor, and Capital Deepening
theoretical
236
Keynesian Rigidity, Pigou Effects, and Short-Run Flexibility
theoretical
237
Relative Prices, Cost Pressure, Demand Stabilization, and Inflation
theoretical
238
Cost Maladjustment, Disaggregation, and Partial Depression
theoretical