Cyclical Fluctuations in the Exports of the United States since 1879

Name: Cyclical Fluctuations in the Exports of the United States since 1879
Author: Mintz

1967

by Mintz

Business CyclesGeopoliticsMilton FriedmanPrice TheoryBalance of PaymentsInternational TradeOskar MorgensternAcceleration PrincipleFritz MachlupJoseph SchumpeterInternational Monetary FundJacob VinerComparative AdvantageInnovationGottfried HaberlerTerms of TradeGreat DepressionMonopolistic CompetitionSupply and DemandElasticity of DemandPurchasing PowerExchange Rates

Table of Contents · 92 segments

Front Matter: Title Page, Series List, and Publication Dataessay

National Bureau Publication Governance Resolutionessay

National Bureau Officers, Directors, and Senior Research Staff, 1967essay

Contents, Tables, and Chartsessay

Acknowledgmentsessay

Prefaceessay

Chapter 1 Introduction: Traditional versus Expansionist Viewschapter

Foreign Business Cycles and the Relation Between Exports and Domestic Cycleschapter

The Impact of Exports on Domestic Business Cyclestheoretical

The Traditional View: Conceptual Foundations, Literature, and Policy Commentarytheoretical

Empirical Studies of the Traditional View and the Opening of the Expansionist Critiqueessay

Validity of Traditional and Expansionist Viewstheoretical

Long-Run Expansionist View and Plan of Studytheoretical

Data and Methods: Source and Nature of U.S. Export Datachapter

Data and Methods: Quality of U.S. Export Datachapter

World Imports as an Indicator of Foreign Demandchapter

Relation of World Import Cycles to U.S. Business Cycleschapter

Trends in the Ratio of U.S. Exports to World Importschapter

The Method: Burns-Mitchell Technique and Rank Correlationstheoretical

The Method: Matching Quantities and Pricestheoretical

Charts 2–18: U.S. Export Values, Quantities, Prices, and World Importschapter

Instability of U.S. Exports: Comparison of Prices, Quantities, and Valueschapter

General Views on Export Instabilitychapter

Instability of Manufactures and Primary Goods Exports: Mintz's Findingschapter

Instability of Manufactures and Primary Goods Exports: Findings of Other Researcherschapter

Instability of Total Exports: Mintz's Findingschapter

Instability of Total Exports: Other Findings and the Rise in Export Instabilitychapter

Summary of Findings on Export Instability and Transition to World Importschapter

Export Quantitieschapter

Export Prices and Valueschapter

Summary: U.S. Exports and World Import Cycleschapter

When and Why Exports Reverse Their Course: Problem and Methodchapter

Foreign Demand as Cause of Export Turns: Association with World Import Turnschapter

Leads and Lags of U.S. Exports at World Cycle Turnschapter

Secular Trends as Cause of Timing Differences by Commodity Classchapter

Conclusion on Export Timing and the Marginal Supplier Viewchapter

Domestic Business Cycles as Cause of Export Turnschapter

Failure of DBC Turns to Bring About MEQ Turnschapter

Crude Materials Export Turns, Domestic Business Cycles, and Cotton Crop Effects, 1879–1913chapter

Diminishing Impact of Domestic Business Cycles on Crude Materials Export Turns After World War Ichapter

Semimanufactures Export Turns and Postwar Summary of the Inverse DBC Effectchapter

Note on Semimanufactures Export Turns in 1960–61chapter

Relation Between Food Export Turns and Domestic Business Cycle Turns, 1879–1913chapter

Relation Between Food Export Turns and Domestic Business Cycle Turns, 1920–63chapter

Explanation of Timing of Turns in Total Exports, 1879–1913chapter

Explanation of Timing of Turns in Total Exports, 1920–63chapter

The Effect of U.S. Business Cycles on the Quantity of U.S. Exports: Chapter Introductionchapter

Measuring the Relation of U.S. Export Quantities to U.S. Business Cycles: Export Quantities Rising More in Expansions, 1921–61chapter

Export Quantities Rising More in Business Contractions than in Expansions, 1879–1913chapter

Severity of U.S. Business Cycles and Export Changes: Amplitude Correlations, 1879–1961chapter

World Import Cycles and the Export-Quantity Questionchapter

Conformity and Partial-Correlation Evidence on World Imports and U.S. Exportschapter

Inferring Domestic-Cycle Effects from Export Price and Quantity Movementschapter

Rates of Change and the Manufactures-Export Puzzlechapter

Expansionist Explanation and Data-Quality Tests for Manufactures Exportschapter

Statistical Technique as a Possible Explanation of the MEQ–DBC Relationchapter

World Imports of Manufactures and Foreign-Demand Measurementchapter

Conclusions on Finished Manufactures Exportschapter

Summary of Findings on Export Quantities: Opening Claimschapter

Footnote 24 on Long-Run Price Elasticity of Manufactures Exportsfootnotes

Summary of Findings on Export Quantities: Period Contrasts and Composition Effectschapter

Conclusion of Export Quantity Findings and Opening of Chapter 7chapter

Domestic and Foreign Influences on Export Priceschapter

Close Agreement Between Movements of Total Export Prices and Domestic Business, 1921–61chapter

Confirmation of Preceding Findings by Amplitude Correlationschapter

Export Prices About as Closely Related to World Import Cycles as to U.S. Business Cycles, 1921–61chapter

Lags of Export Prices at U.S. Business Cycle Turning Points, 1879–1913chapter

Common Features in Behavior of U.S. Export Prices in Domestic Business Cycles Before and After World War Ichapter

Values of U.S. Total Foreign and Domestic Sales Move Together, 1921–61chapter

Cycles in Total Export Value Traced Back to Cycles in Total Quantity and Total Price, 1921–61chapter

Cycles in Total Export Value Traced Back to Cycles in Commodity Classes, 1921–61chapter

Cycles in the Values of Export Commodity Classes Traced Back to Class Quantities and Prices, 1921–61chapter

Value of U.S. Exports in Expansions and Contractions, 1879–1913chapter

Cycles in Total Export Value Traced Back to Cycles in Total Quantity and Total Price, 1879–1913chapter

Cycles in Total Export Value Traced Back to Cycles in the Values of Commodity Classes, 1879–1913chapter

Cycles in the Values of Commodity Classes Traced Back to Class Quantities and Prices, 1879–1913chapter

Summary and Opening of Appendix Achapter

Appendix A: Sources for the Export Databibliography

Appendix A: Notes on the Source Seriesessay

Our Adjustments of the Source Serieschapter

Appendix A: Data Construction and Seasonal Adjustment Noteschapter

Table A-1: U.S. Export Values, Quarterly at Annual Rates, 1879-1963chapter

Table A-2: U.S. Export Quantity Indexes, 1879-1963chapter

Table A-3: U.S. Export Price Indexes, 1879-1963chapter

Appendix B: Commodity Composition of U.S. Exportschapter

Appendix C: The World Import Datachapter

Appendix C: World Import Data Sources, Interpolators, and Seasonal Adjustmentchapter

Table C-1: World Imports Excluding U.S. Imports, Quarterly at Annual Rates, 1880-1965chapter

Appendix D: The Methodtheoretical

Author Indexbibliography

Subject Indexbibliography

Library Due Date and Catalog Cardbibliography