Long term projections of power political economic and military forecasting
1973
by Morgenstern et al
ExpectationsKnowledge EconomicsInnovationGame TheoryIndustrial RevolutionHuman CapitalMethodologyNational IncomeOskar MorgensternInternational TradePrice MechanismExternalitiesMathematical EconomicsAlexis de TocquevilleSovereigntyEconomies of ScaleElasticity of DemandEconomic DevelopmentInvestmentPrice TheoryTerms of TradeLeon WalrasInterventionismPrice FormationDepreciationKeynesian EconomicsMultiplierUnemploymentDeficit SpendingWorld War IWorld War IIEuropean UnionRaw MaterialsGeopolitics
Table of Contents · 64 segments
1
Front Matter and Table of Contentsessay
2
List of Figures and Tablesbibliography
3
Forewordessay
4
Prefaceessay
5
Introductionessay
6
Chapter One: The Content of Future Technologychapter
7
Technological Forecasting and Overview of Forecasting Approacheschapter
8
The Delphi Method: Nature, Claims, Limitations, and Proposed Improvementschapter
9
Critique of the Delphi Methodchapter
10
Experience, Modification, and Use of Delphi Since 1964chapter
11
The Fucks Forecast: Introduction and Mathematical Modelchapter
12
Fucks’s Index of Power and Projections for Population, Steel, Energy, and Chinachapter
13
Critique of Fucks’s Forecasting Methodchapter
14
A Note on GNP and Measurement Errorchapter
15
China’s Politics and Economic Growthchapter
16
Political Conditions and Turning Points in Chinese Economic Growthessay
17
Kahn and Wiener’s Scenario Approach in The Year 2000theoretical
18
The Limits to Growth Model and Its Global Feedback Projectionstheoretical
19
Critique of the Limits to Growth Model’s Data and Assumptionstheoretical
20
Adaptive Responses to Exponential Growth: Prices, Technology, and Governmenttheoretical
21
The Necessarily Incomplete Model and Limits of Social Forecastingtheoretical
22
Time Series Analysis and Its Pitfalls in Forecastingtheoretical
23
Gaston Berger and the Prospective Movementessay
24
Conclusions on Forecast Credibility and Planning Under Uncertaintyessay
25
Power and the Future Technological Capacity of States and Regionschapter
26
Problems in Predicting the Level of Technological Capacitychapter
27
Problems of Predicting Scale and Structure of Technological Capacity: The United States Telecommunications Sectorchapter
28
Price and Income Elasticities in Telecommunications Demandtheoretical
29
R&D Impact on Telecommunications Production Functionstheoretical
30
Transition to Chapter Six: The Energy Variablechapter
31
Chapter Six Introduction: Energy as the Critical Material Resourcechapter
32
The Demand for Energychapter
33
Energy Resources: Size and Distributionchapter
34
The Energy Squeeze: Demand Projection to 1990chapter
35
Energy Dependency and Power Status by Major Regionchapter
36
Energy Waste, Efficiency, and Potential Consumptionchapter
37
Long-Run Technological Options for Energy Supplychapter
38
International Economic Implications of the World Energy Squeezechapter
39
Energy Vulnerability and International Powerchapter
40
Conjecture, Public Policy, and U.S. Energy Transition Optionschapter
41
Limits of Price Adjustmentchapter
42
Chapter Seven opening and single-equation forecasting approacheschapter
43
Rationale for a simultaneous-equation sector modeltheoretical
44
Overview of the telecommunications econometric modeltheoretical
45
Demand and revenue relationships in telecommunicationstheoretical
46
Supply, cost, profit, and price determination relationshipstheoretical
47
Supplementary investment and employment relationshipstheoretical
48
Chapter Seven summary and implications for long-term forecastingchapter
49
Predictive compatibility as a principle of forecastingtheoretical
50
China steel projections and input-output compatibility analysisessay
51
Compressibility of economic systems and Keynesian government project opportunitiestheoretical
52
Consumption compression, wartime mobilization, and limits of GPOtheoretical
53
Kernels, connectedness, redundancy, and vulnerability of economic systemstheoretical
54
International resource competition, energy constraints, and power indicesessay
55
Chapter Nine: Some Major Conclusions on Forecastingchapter
56
Appendix: Empirical Demand Estimates for U.S. Telecommunicationsessay
57
Appendix: Production Function and Input Requirements for Telecommunicationsessay
58
Appendix Summary and Remarksessay
59
Technical Note: Basic Data on U.S. Telecommunicationsessay
60
Notes for Chapters 1–8footnotes
61
Endnotes for Chapter 9, Technical Note, and Appendix Afootnotes
62
Selected Bibliography on Forecasting Economic, Political, and Military Powerbibliography