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International Financial Transactions and Business Cycles
1959
by
Morgenstern
Business Cycles
Knowledge Economics
Oskar Morgenstern
Gottfried Haberler
Milton Friedman
Gold Standard
Balance of Payments
Exchange Rates
Interest Rates
Monetary Theory
Business Cycle Theory
Classical Economics
International Monetary Fund
International Trade
Mercantilism
Richard Cantillon
Devaluation
David Ricardo
Thomas Malthus
Bank of England
Capital Movements
Exchange Control
Knut Wicksell
Speculation
Inflation
William Stanley Jevons
World War I
Central Banking
Economic Policy
Interventionism
Banking
Reichsbank
Saving
Expectations
Price Theory
John von Neumann
Monetary Reform
Antoine Augustin Cournot
Jacob Viner
John Maynard Keynes
Production Costs
Reparations
Gold Reserves
League of Nations
Discount Rate
Stabilization
Bank of France
Napoleon Bonaparte
Monetary Policy
Federal Reserve
Money Supply
Velocity of Circulation
Irving Fisher
Jan Tinbergen
Uncertainty
Capital Accumulation
Liquidity
Methodology
Equilibrium
Game Theory
Great Depression
World War II
Infrastructure
Unemployment
National Income
Keynesian Economics
Wages
Table of Contents · 159 segments
1
Title Pages, Series List, and Cataloging Information
essay
2
National Bureau of Economic Research Officers, Directors, and Research Staff
essay
3
Relation of the Directors to NBER Research and Publications
essay
4
Preface
essay
5
Contents: Chapters I–IX
essay
6
Front Matter: Contents, Charts, and Tables (continued)
chapter
7
List of Tables (continued): Financial Series, Gold Points, Exchange Rates, Interest Rates, and Stock Prices
bibliography
8
Chapter I, Section 1: The Problem
chapter
9
Chapter I, Section 2: Statistical Methods and Materials
chapter
10
Footnote 11: Country Size and Currency Devaluation Policy
footnotes
11
Section 3: Theoretical Discussions of Business Cycle Transmissions
theoretical
12
Bibliography on the International Spread of Business Cycles
bibliography
13
Section 4: The Institutional Background and Its Changes
essay
14
Section 5: Transmission of Shocks and Cycles
theoretical
15
Transmission Mechanisms, Reaction Speeds, Aggregation, and Sensitivity
theoretical
16
World Economy and World Business Cycles
theoretical
17
Plan of the Following Chapters
chapter
18
The International Timing of Business Cycles: Reference Dates and Charts
chapter
19
Reference Cycle Chronologies and Multicountry Phase Comparisons
chapter
20
Pairwise Phase Comparisons Before and After World War I
chapter
21
Timing Leads, Transmission, American Rhythm, and Postwar Disharmony
chapter
22
Significance Test for Phase Comparisons
theoretical
23
Significance Test of International Business Cycle Phase Comparisons
chapter
24
Duration of Reference Cycles Before and After World War I
chapter
25
Limits of International Reference Cycles and the Role of Financial Crises
chapter
26
Method for Measuring Concentration and Dispersion of Turning Points
chapter
27
Prewar Application of Turning-Point Dispersion Measures
chapter
28
Postwar Turning-Point Dispersion and Composite Reference Cycle Peaks and Troughs
chapter
29
Alternative General Business Measures and Opening of Chapter III on Short-Term Interest Rates
chapter
30
The Role of Short-Term Interest Rates
chapter
31
Frequency Distributions of Short-Term Interest Rates
chapter
32
Seasonal Variations and Transition to Domestic Cyclical Behavior
chapter
33
Domestic Cyclical Behavior of Short-Term Interest Rates
chapter
34
International Covariation of Short-Term Interest Rate Cycles
chapter
35
Postwar Phase Comparison and Correlation Coefficients of Short-Term Interest Rates
chapter
36
Sign Correlation, Correlation Measures, and Summary Rankings of Money-Market Relationships
chapter
37
Concentration and Dispersion of Short-Term Interest Rate Turning Points
chapter
38
Concluding Remarks on Domestic and International Influences on Interest Rates
chapter
39
Chapter III Conclusion: Summary of Short-Term Interest Rate Findings
chapter
40
Appendix: Description of the Monthly Short-Term Interest Rate Data
chapter
41
Chapter IV, Section I: A Mechanism of Interaction and the Data
chapter
42
Chapter IV, Section 2: Frequency Distributions of Short-Term Interest Rate Differentials
chapter
43
Table 24 Continued: Postwar Frequency Distributions of Short-Term Interest Rate Differentials
chapter
44
Relative Heights, Variances, Seasonality, and Cyclical Timing of Short-Term Rate Differentials
chapter
45
Section 3 Opening and Inserted Tables on Seasonal Indexes, Specific Cycles, and Differential Maxima
chapter
46
Table 30 Beginning: Annual Absolute Maxima of Short-Term Interest Rate Differentials
chapter
47
The Absolute Maxima and Minima of Short-Term Interest Rate Differentials
chapter
48
Cyclical Aspects and the Equilibrium Problem
chapter
49
Short-Term Interest Rate Differentials: Risk, Indirect Transfers, and Data Limits
theoretical
50
Chapter V, Section 1: Introduction to International Money-Market Solidarity
chapter
51
Chapter V, Section 2: The Solidarity Hypothesis
theoretical
52
Chapter V, Section 3: Gold Points, Exchange-Rate Algebra, and Mint Par
theoretical
53
Chapter V, Section 4: Statistics of Gold Points and Exchange Rates
chapter
54
Prewar Gold Points, Source Criticism, and Table 33 Conclusion
chapter
55
Interwar Gold Points and New York Market Gold Point Series, 1925–1933
chapter
56
Gold Point Stability and Exchange-Rate Frequency Distributions
chapter
57
Mint Parity, Currency Weakness, and Chi-Square Tests
chapter
58
Conclusion on Currency Weakness and Exchange-Rate Frequency Distributions
chapter
59
Seasonal Variations of Exchange Rates
chapter
60
Forward Rates of Exchange
chapter
61
Forward Exchange Rates and Opening of Derived-Rate Analysis
chapter
62
Computing Derived and Arbitrage Exchange Rate Series
chapter
63
Derived-Rate Distributions and Arbitrage Differentials
chapter
64
Arbitrage Rate Distributions and Crisis Signals
chapter
65
Opening of Section 8: Gold-Point Violations and Data Method
chapter
66
Tables 51–52: Dates of Large Arbitrage-Rate Deviations
chapter
67
Gold-Point Violation Charts and Prewar Exchange-Rate Deviations
chapter
68
Postwar Exchange-Rate Deviations from Gold Points: Table Continuation and Notes
chapter
69
Chart 16: Prewar Deviations of Exchange Rates from Gold Points, 1880–1914
chapter
70
Chart 17: Postwar Deviations of Exchange Rates from Gold Points, 1925–1934
chapter
71
Interpretation of Gold-Point Violations and Summary of Findings
chapter
72
Table 55: Frequency of Exchange-Rate Deviations from Gold Import and Export Points
chapter
73
Table 56: Percentage Width of Prewar Exchange-Rate Deviations from Gold Points
chapter
74
Table 56 Continued: Prewar Percentage Width of Exchange Rate Deviations from Gold Points
chapter
75
Table 57: Percentage Width of Exchange Rate Deviations from Gold Points, Postwar Period
chapter
76
Violations of Gold Points: Postwar Magnitudes and Continuous Deviations
chapter
77
Section 9: A Special Case—Heiligenstadt on German-British Gold Points
chapter
78
Table 60: Germany–England Gold Import Point for London, 1890
chapter
79
Table 61: Germany–England Gold Import Point for Berlin, 1890
chapter
80
Table 62 Beginning: Gold Points for Berlin and Exchange Rate Movements in Berlin and London, 1886–1891
chapter
81
Gold Points and Exchange Rate Movements in Berlin, London, Paris, and New York, 1886–1910
chapter
82
Chapter V Summary: Exchange Rates, Gold Points, and International Financial Tension
chapter
83
Appendix: Description and Sources of the Six Foreign Exchange Series
chapter
84
Chapter VI, Section 1: Formation of Interest-Rate Differential and Exchange-Rate Pairs
chapter
85
Chapter VI, Section 2: Discussion of Specific-Cycle Covariations
chapter
86
Chapter VI, Section 3: Introduction of Short Cycles
chapter
87
Definition and Identification of Short Cycles
chapter
88
Specific Cycles and Short Cycles Compared
chapter
89
Sign Correlations of Interest Rate Differentials and Exchange Rates
chapter
90
Discussion of a Specific Example
chapter
91
Chapter VI, Section 6: London–Berlin Correspondence and Correlation Tests
chapter
92
Chapter VII Opening: Need for Quantitative Estimates and Section 2 Transition
chapter
93
Chapter VII, Section 2: Exchange Rates, Interest Differentials, and Permissible Limits
chapter
94
Permissible Differentials and the Extended Solidarity Hypothesis
chapter
95
Description of the Method for Measuring Effort and Stress
chapter
96
Interpretation of Effort Series: New York and London Relations
chapter
97
Pairwise Effort Series: London, Berlin, Gold-Point Violations, and Interest-Rate Flexibility
chapter
98
Maximum Effort Series for Four Intercommunicating Money Markets
chapter
99
Charts 41–44: Maximum Permissible Effort and Short-Term Differentials
chapter
100
Table 78: Continuous Violations in Pairwise Permissible Effort Series
chapter
101
Table 79 Begins: Continuous Violations in Maximum Permissible Effort Series
chapter
102
Measures of Stress: Continuous Violations in Maximum Permissible Effort Series
chapter
103
Chapter VII Conclusion on International Financial Stress Measures
chapter
104
Chapter VIII Section 1: Domestic and Foreign Factors in Central Bank Discount Rates
chapter
105
Chapter VIII Section 2: Incompleteness of Information and Reichsbank Discount Rate Evidence
chapter
106
Chapter VIII Section 3: The Fourteen Variables of Central Bank Policy
chapter
107
Classification and Evidence for Central Bank Policy Instruments
chapter
108
Seasonal Variations in Discount Rates, Reserves, Trade, and Gold Movements
chapter
109
Frequency Distributions and Specific Cycles of Central Bank Discount Rates
chapter
110
Table Notes and Postwar Discount-Rate Cycle Fragment
chapter
111
Frequency Distributions and Changes in Central Bank Discount Rates
chapter
112
Concentration and Dispersion of Discount-Rate Turning Points
chapter
113
Correlation, Open-Market Comparisons, and Covariation with Reference Cycles
chapter
114
Central Bank Discount Rates and Reference Cycles: Postwar Table and Conclusion
chapter
115
Central Bank Discount Rates and Open Market Short-Term Rates
chapter
116
Timing of Central Bank Discount Rates Relative to Open Market Rates: United States, Great Britain, and France
chapter
117
Central Bank Discount Rates and Open Market Rates: Timing, Correlation, and Directional Covariation
chapter
118
Discount Rate Differentials, Exchange Rates, and Frequency Distributions
chapter
119
Cycles of Discount Rate Differentials and Phase Comparison with Open Market Differentials
chapter
120
Central Bank Discount Differentials, Short-Term Rates, and Sign Correlations
chapter
121
Covariation of Central Bank Discount Differentials with Exchange Rates
chapter
122
Summary of Central Bank Discount Rates and Exchange Rates
chapter
123
Appendix A: Institutional Meaning of Discount Rates
essay
124
Appendix B: Discriminatory Discount Rates and Reichsbank Private Rates
essay
125
Discriminatory Discount Rates and Gold Price Practices
chapter
126
Chapter IX, Section 1: The Significance of Long-Term Interest Rates
theoretical
127
Chapter IX, Section 2: The Statistics of Long-Term Interest Rates
chapter
128
Chapter IX, Section 3: Cyclical Behavior of Long-Term Interest Rates
chapter
129
Cyclical Behavior of Long-Term Rates: Reference-Cycle Covariation and International Synchronization
chapter
130
Long-Term Interest Rate Differentials: Rationale, Frequency Distributions, and Rate Rankings
chapter
131
Long-Term Interest Rate Differentials: Cyclical Characteristics and Specific-Cycle Turning Points
chapter
132
Continuation of Cycle Durations for Long-Term Interest Rate Differentials
chapter
133
Long-Term Rate Differentials: Maxima, Minima, Ranges, and Phase Covariation
chapter
134
Section 5 Introduction: Differentials of Long-Term and Short-Term Interest Rates
chapter
135
Long-Short Interest Rate Differentials: Frequency Distributions and Lagged Covariation
chapter
136
Averages of Interest Rates and International Differential Patterns
chapter
137
Specific Cycles of Long-Short Interest Rate Differentials
chapter
138
Long-Short Interest Rate Differentials: Phase Comparisons and International Covariation
chapter
139
Summary: International Money Markets in Stress
chapter
140
Chapter X, Section 1: General Characteristics of Security Markets and Foreign Capital Issues
chapter
141
Table 130: Distribution of Selected Listed International Securities before 1914
chapter
142
Russian Securities Held Abroad and Transition to Foreign Securities on Domestic Exchanges
chapter
143
Table 130 Continued: Foreign Securities Listed on German, London, Paris, and Amsterdam Exchanges
chapter
144
Table 130: Securities Listed on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange, 1890–1900
chapter
145
Table 130: Amsterdam Stock Exchange Securities Listed, 1905–1914
chapter
146
General Characteristics of Foreign Securities and International Stock Market Influence
chapter
147
Cyclical Behavior and Covariation of Stock Market Prices in Four Countries
chapter
148
Statistically Determined Turning Points and Stock Market Panics
chapter
149
Foreign Capital Flotations and Limits of Available Data
chapter
150
Appendix: Description of Share Price Indexes for the United States, Great Britain, Germany, and France
chapter
151
Share Price Indexes Used: National Coverage and Comparability
essay
152
Chapter XI: Conclusion and Perspective
chapter
153
Chronological Appendix: Summary of Business Annals for Four Countries
chapter
154
Index
bibliography
155
National Bureau Publications on Business Cycles, 1920–1958
bibliography
156
National Bureau Publications on Business Cycles: I. Books on Business Cycles
bibliography
157
National Bureau Publications on Business Cycles: II. Books Partly Concerned with Business Cycles
bibliography
158
National Bureau Publications on Business Cycles: III. Papers on Business Cycles
bibliography
159
Library Date-Due Slip and Catalog Information
bibliography