Hermann von Schullern zu Schrattenhofen · 1895
Schullern’s statistical journal article examines a central claim of contemporary agrarian-crisis discourse: that grain prices have undergone a prolonged and substantial decline.
Unter den zahlreichen Ursachen, welche für die heutige Landwirthschaftskrise verantwortlich gemacht werden, wird vor Allem ein andauerndes und sehr starkes Sinken der Getreidepreise namhaft gemacht.
English translation: Among the numerous causes held responsible for the present agricultural crisis, a persistent and very sharp fall in grain prices is cited above all.
The investigation distinguishes exceptionally low prices from evidence of an uninterrupted downward tendency. Austrian wheat and rye prices had indeed fallen sharply by 1894, but the demonstrably continuous decline followed the high prices of 1891–92. Earlier fluctuations and the different behaviour of oats complicate any diagnosis of inevitable agricultural collapse.
Schullern’s method compares periods, commodities, trading institutions, and countries rather than treating isolated observations as sufficient evidence.
Dadurch kann man am ehesten die Gefahr vermeiden, momentanen Einflüssen dauernde Bedeutung zuzuschreiben und etwa locale Erscheinungen zu sehr zu verallgemeinern.
English translation: In this way one can best avoid the danger of attributing lasting significance to momentary influences and perhaps generalizing local phenomena too broadly.
He first explains the official monthly reporting system introduced in January 1894, covering approximately 400 Austrian markets. Municipal returns record quantities, prices, and hectolitre weights; administrative checks and quantity-weighted averages make these statistics more dependable than older, inconsistently collected provincial reports. An appended annual statement covers 166 principal markets and supplies quality indicators alongside prices. The reliability of observation is thus part of the argument, not merely a preliminary technical concern.
The initial comparisons establish widespread falls in wheat, rye, and oats, corroborated by Vienna exchange quotations. For wheat, Schullern explicitly acknowledges the scale of the movement within 1894:
Im Allgemeinen muss also wohl eine ganz erhebliche Abnahme der Weizenpreise vom Jänner bis zum December 1894 zugegeben werden.
English translation: In general, then, a very considerable decrease in wheat prices from January to December 1894 must surely be acknowledged.
Yet a single year’s movement does not establish a long-term law. Vienna wholesale series for 1873–94 show wheat and rye at their lowest levels in 1894, but substantial intervening reversals and no comparable long-run decline in oats. Retail series reinforce the dating of the recent downturn. Comparisons with Hungary, Germany, Italy, Russia, Britain, and the United States establish broadly shared movements, suggesting general rather than exclusively Austrian causes. Schullern compares tendencies without assuming that heterogeneous foreign quotations represent directly comparable price levels. The evidence lends qualified support to Conrad’s interpretation of a temporary crisis rather than the beginning of general decline; identifying its ultimate causes remains outside the investigation.
The article then moves from annual trends to monthly rhythms. Harvest expectations can induce holders to release stocks before harvesting begins, while grain’s movement from producing districts to wholesalers helps explain differences in the timing of recovery. Monthly wholesale and market averages reveal no substantially damaging exchange influence in 1894. This does not settle the question of speculation: averages can conceal disruptive daily movements, and a convincing test would require same-day observations and adjustments for grain quality.
Commodity differences further distinguish world-market exposure from local price formation. Wheat follows international movements more closely than oats. Oats’ relative long-run stability contrasts with their sharp decline during 1894, which might reflect increasing international integration, but also the unusually favourable Austrian harvest and increased imports. Schullern preserves these alternatives rather than forcing every fall into one explanation.
The final geographical analysis connects market concentration and price differences to transport networks. Large markets cluster near borders and railway routes, particularly in Lower Austria and Galicia. The scarcity of substantial markets in the southwest need not signify an absence of grain commerce: direct imports and warehouses can distribute supplies without conventional market trading. Low prices often accompany major trading centres, whereas Tyrol’s high prices reflect transport costs and its grain levy. Accessible markets transmit wider price pressures, while poorly connected districts retain more locally determined prices. Barley’s heterogeneous qualities and maize’s restricted market coverage explain their exclusion from sustained comparison. The article’s contribution lies in separating price levels from trends, seasonal changes from longer movements, and common market pressures from local conditions.
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