Gerhard Tintner, The Dynamics of Business Cycles (1950)

Gerhard Tintner’s book review presents Jan Tinbergen’s The Dynamics of Business Cycles as a welcome synthesis of economic theory, statistical investigation, and practical policy. Its central judgment is that Tinbergen makes a technically demanding field accessible without sacrificing breadth or seriousness. Tintner develops this assessment through the book’s intellectual context, the author’s qualifications, a survey of its three-part structure, and a concluding recommendation for teaching.

The review places Tinbergen among the economists of small European countries whose contributions have become important to modern economics. It identifies the reviewed book as a translation and adaptation of his Dutch Economische Bewegingsleer, published in 1942, revised for American readers. Accessibility matters here in two senses: Tinbergen’s earlier journal articles were difficult for American economists to obtain, while his statistical research required expertise that many readers lacked. The new book provides a comprehensive account of his ideas at a moment when, according to Tintner, important work on business cycles has become less frequent than during the 1930s.

Tinbergen’s authority rests on the conjunction of econometric innovation and policy experience. Tintner recalls his pioneering statistical tests of business-cycle theories and emphasizes his work with the Dutch Central Statistical Office and Planning Commission. Familiarity with European and American economic policy gives his recommendations practical weight. Yet the review stresses that this expertise does not make the book inaccessible:

But the book is written for economists who are not trained in mathematics and the more complicated methods of statistics, hence it can be recommended to all who are interested in the subject regardless of training.

This sentence states a principal reason for Tintner’s approval: the book communicates the results and conceptual substance of specialized research to a wider economic readership. Accessibility is paired with intellectual openness. Tinbergen’s framework is strongly influenced by Keynes, but the review does not identify it exclusively with one school:

His point of view in business cycle theory and also in policy is eclectic. Although greatly influenced by Keynesian ideas, Professor Tinbergen also gives other systems consideration in his discussion.

Tintner’s structural account shows how that breadth operates. The first part distinguishes kinds of movement in economic time series: long-run developments, structural changes, cycles, seasonal fluctuations, and random movements. European and American examples ground these distinctions. This descriptive groundwork precedes the second part’s explanation of fluctuations, which introduces statics and dynamics, considers war, inflation, and long waves, and develops several models of business cycles. Exogenous movements receive separate attention.

Throughout this account, Tintner singles out the book’s relevance to agricultural economists. The hog cycle appears both in the description of individual markets and in their theoretical explanation; coffee, agricultural products, and raw-material imports also receive attention. These examples connect general cycle analysis with fluctuations in particular markets. The review thus values the book not only for its treatment of aggregate economic movements but also for its usefulness to specialists concerned with concrete sectors.

The final part turns from description and explanation to intervention:

The last part of the book deals in a very thorough fashion with business cycle policy. There is first a discussion of the objectives of policy. Possible policies are divided into two groups, indirect and direct.

Tintner summarizes indirect measures involving taxation, interest, credit, wages, prices, exchange rates, and the stock market. Direct measures include expenditure policy and controls affecting investment, raw-material production, trade, and construction. A concluding chapter addresses the choice of optimum policy. The review reports this organization rather than evaluating particular prescriptions: its emphasis is on the range of instruments and the systematic progression from policy objectives to policy choice.

Tintner concludes by recommending the book for advanced undergraduate and graduate courses. His favorable verdict follows from the qualities established throughout the review: theoretical breadth, empirical grounding, practical experience, and exposition accessible beyond a mathematically trained audience. The book’s significance, in his account, lies in bringing these elements together within a teachable treatment of a difficult economic field.