Joseph A. Schumpeter: Review of Wilhelm Winkler’s Grundriß der Statistik, I. Theoretische Statistik (1933)

Schumpeter’s review of Winkler’s 1931 textbook treats statistical instruction as a condition of scientific competence in economics. Its central judgment is that Winkler successfully provides a much-needed intermediate course, despite the unavoidable compromises involved in teaching modern methods to readers with inadequate mathematical preparation. The review moves from this disciplinary need through an appraisal of the book’s organization and teaching techniques to specific criticisms of its coverage and conceptual foundations.

Jeder Volkswirt, was immer sein Arbeitsgebiet oder die allgemeine Richtung seiner Eignungen und Neigungen, muß, in den Grundzügen wenigstens, ökonomische Theorie, Wirtschaftsgeschichte und die Verfahren der Statistik von heute beherrschen.

English translation: Every economist, whatever his field of work or the general direction of his aptitudes and inclinations, must master, in its main features at least, economic theory, economic history and the statistical procedures of today.

This opening demand makes statistical knowledge part of the economist’s essential equipment, alongside theory and economic history. Schumpeter argues that deficient university instruction leaves much modern research—and its practically important results—inaccessible to most German economists. Winkler’s book fills a gap previously addressed by recommending American textbooks. The judgment remains provisional in one respect: the promised second volume on applications may supply material treated too briefly here, especially price indices and interpolation.

Schumpeter praises the introductory account of statistical history, organization, sources, data collection, and processing. Seventeen units in the second section constitute the substantive core; a short final section challenges the slogan that statistics “lie.” Particularly important are worked examples, which help compensate for the shortage of qualified university teachers.

Insbesondere kann die Darbietung zahlreicher Beispiele und durchgerechneter Aufgaben nicht genug gerühmt werden.

English translation: In particular, the presentation of numerous examples and fully worked-through exercises cannot be praised enough.

Their value is not merely illustrative: they make independent study possible where institutional instruction fails. Yet Schumpeter refuses to mistake accessibility for complete scientific understanding. An intermediate textbook must introduce methods whose mathematical foundations its readers cannot fully follow. Omitting derivations sacrifices rigor, while supplying them may defeat the pedagogical purpose. His praise therefore concerns Winkler’s skill in managing necessary compromises, rather than the elimination of those compromises.

The strongest approval goes to the treatment from the sixth chapter onward: statistical grouping, series, averages, dispersion, distribution curves, time series, interpolation, relative numbers, correlation, and diagrams. Schumpeter regards these as the minimum methodological equipment of statistically informed social science. His proposed improvements are concrete: elementary periodogram analysis, fuller discussion of diagrams and logarithmic paper, a more useful account of moments, and a genuinely explanatory treatment of multiple correlation. He also welcomes Winkler’s encouragement of bold research, although he finds the absence of criticism in the treatment of Pareto’s income-distribution curve striking.

The principal reservation concerns the placement and character of the first five foundational chapters. Abstract discussions of statistical aggregates and essential forms demand too much at the outset; their meaning would become clearer through practical problems and subsequent methodological reflection.

Ihr Inhalt wäre ihm besser im Laufe der Erörterungen und dann am Schluß nach und nach beizubringen, wie schon die wiederholt auftretende Notwendigkeit von Vorausverweisungen lehrt.

English translation: Its content would better be imparted to him little by little in the course of the discussions and then at the close, as the repeatedly arising necessity of forward references already teaches.

Here Schumpeter distinguishes logical order from effective teaching order: foundations need not come first if understanding them presupposes familiarity with the methods they ground. His related preference for greater emphasis on relative frequency and less on probability is deliberately qualified. Winkler’s emphasis on probability responds legitimately to its naïve rejection in Germany, but grants it a contested predominance and creates an obligation to explain probability theory more deeply.

Damit wird freilich das Reich der statistischen Grundlagenforschung berührt, deren Kontroversen der „Mittelstufe“ statistischer Theorie am besten ferngehalten werden.

English translation: With this, to be sure, the realm of fundamental statistical research is touched upon, whose controversies are best kept away from the "intermediate level" of statistical theory.

The review thus draws a boundary between essential methodological training and disputes over ultimate foundations. Its relevance lies in this sustained connection between disciplinary standards, institutional deficiencies, and the practical sequencing of knowledge. Schumpeter concludes by strongly recommending the book for teaching and self-study, while hoping that Winkler will eventually produce an advanced course in which his abilities and scientific outlook can receive fuller expression.