Ludwig von Mises · 1924
Ludwig von Mises’s 1924 book review presents Seibt’s study as a lucid diagnosis of Germany’s economic crisis and an indictment of the economic writing that helped produce it. Moving from intellectual responsibility to monetary theory, failed warnings, and the study’s lasting relevance, Mises argues that inflationary and statist policies had consequences that sound theory could anticipate.
Kein Mißgriff wurde begangen, der nicht schon lange vorher im volkswirtschaftlichen Schrifttum mit dem größten Aufwande von Beredsamkeit empfohlen worden war.
English translation: No blunder was committed that had not long before been recommended in the economic literature with the greatest expenditure of eloquence.
This opening accusation makes economic commentators active guides of policy, not merely observers of its mistakes. Mises contrasts Bismarck’s unserious suggestion of a local experiment in socialism with his successors’ exposure of the entire German Reich to doctrines whose defects should have been recognized without such suffering. Seibt’s merit lies in challenging these prevailing errors.
Mises follows Seibt’s exposition from monetary theory to practical reform. The quantity theory supplies the foundation for rejecting the balance-of-payments theory of exchange rates and reassessing arguments about asset sell-offs, capital consumption, underproduction, tenant protection, taxation, and reparations. Monetary analysis thus organizes the discussion of economic policy rather than remaining a specialized preliminary. The reform programme culminates in stopping the printing press and returning to a free economy.
The review then tests this theoretical diagnosis against events. Seibt’s work, dated 1 December 1922, warned that Germany would collapse within a year unless currency and economy were put in order. Mises regards the subsequent monetary catastrophe as vindication. Yet Seibt’s warnings, including his recommendation to learn from other countries, especially Austria, went unheeded.
Und es wird voraussichtlich noch lange dauern, bis man aufhören wird, den Quacksalbern zu folgen und ernste Warnungen zu mißachten.
English translation: And it will presumably be a long time yet before men cease to follow the quacks and to disregard serious warnings.
The pessimism concerns the reception of economic knowledge: demonstrated failure does not automatically dislodge influential doctrines. This distinction also underpins Mises’s closing assessment of the book’s durability. Some data are outdated, and Seibt does not address later developments such as the Ruhr occupation or the Rentenmark, but these omissions do not invalidate his theoretical argument.
Die falschen Lehren, die er zertrümmert, beherrschen leider noch heute die Geister, und die richtigen Theorien, die er an ihre Stelle setzt, sind heute noch richtig und werden immer richtig bleiben.
English translation: The false doctrines which he demolishes unfortunately still dominate men's minds today, and the correct theories which he puts in their place are still correct today and will always remain correct.
For Mises, the study’s continuing relevance rests on the contrast between changing circumstances and enduring theoretical validity. He praises its logical clarity and accessible prose while treating it as historical evidence that German economists did foresee the consequences of inflationary and statist policy. The review ends by leaving open the further question of why those warnings lost out to the more numerous voices advocating the opposite.
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