Hermann von Schullern zu Schrattenhofen: Review of Josef Grunzel’s study of China’s commercial development (1891)

Schullern’s review assesses Grunzel’s account of twenty-five years of Chinese trade as a useful statistical contribution whose explanatory limitations restrict its scientific and practical value. Its opening establishes China’s importance for European commerce and states, then specifies what an adequate assessment of that market would require: knowledge of Chinese demand, domestic production and costs, and the prospects for introducing unfamiliar goods. These questions demand attention to physical conditions and popular preferences. Schullern also pointedly recalls the violence through which Europeans had previously introduced opium, placing commercial judgment against the historical background of coercion.

Grunzel’s multiyear statistics offer evidence for anticipating the prospects of particular commodities, but Schullern distinguishes such evidence from a comprehensive investigation:

Dagegen fehlen naturgemäss alle für die volle Klärung des Urtheiles erforderlichen Daten, die über die reinen Handelsatsachen hinausgehen.

English translation: On the other hand, there are naturally lacking all the data required for the full clarification of judgment which go beyond the mere facts of trade.

The review follows the book’s progression from a historical sketch of trade and the opening of commercial centres to treaty-port imports and exports, aggregate foreign trade, shipping, individual commodities, and Chinese exports. Throughout, Schullern asks what the figures explain rather than simply what they record. Shanghai’s abrupt import fluctuations furnish his clearest example: further investigation must establish whether these movements reflect accidental events or relatively persistent causes. Although he acknowledges that this inquiry probably exceeded Grunzel’s intended scope, he makes it central to the work’s usefulness:

Ohne derartige Begleituntersuchungen bleibt ein Werk, wie das vorliegende, zu seinem eigenen und der Interessenten Nachtheil steril.

English translation: Without accompanying investigations of that kind, a work such as the present one remains sterile, to its own detriment and to that of those concerned.

This methodological demand also shapes his treatment of national competition. Between 1864 and 1889, imports grew more rapidly than exports, a contrast he considers potentially instructive for European and Chinese tariff policy without drawing a definite policy conclusion. The expansion of German shipping and the contraction and fluctuations of Austrian tonnage likewise invite explanations that Grunzel does not supply.

Schullern places particular weight on commodity-level evidence:

Die für uns wichtigsten Partien des Buches betreffen die Entwicklung des Einfuhrhandels mit bestimmten einzelnen Waaren.

English translation: The portions of the book most important for us concern the development of the import trade in certain individual commodities.

Here the review identifies concrete commercial shifts: Germany’s predominance in cloth imports and growing competitiveness in metal goods, alongside Austria’s, especially Bohemia’s, participation in imitation gemstones and matches. Such observations connect the statistical survey to European export interests. The concluding praise for Grunzel’s extensive bibliography remains qualified: it may help readers supply what the book lacks. The review’s central distinction is thus between documenting trade and explaining its conditions and movements; its relevance lies in articulating the additional research needed to turn commercial statistics into reliable economic judgment.