3,422 works, 150 years of economic thought. Each one summarized and searchable, with cited passages inside.
A smooth growth curve says little about the uncertainty surrounding it. In this 1963 article, Gerhard Tintner and Jati K. Sengupta construct a generalized birth-and-death process in which expected income follows a logistic path while income itself can rise, fall, or remain unchanged. Their distinctive economic premise is that the scarcest productive factors constrain output, motivating a probability distribution through the statistics of minimum values. Applied to German per-capita national income for 1851–1939, the model links a proposed long-run ceiling to a tractable estimation procedure. Readers can examine how economic assumptions become probability laws—and how historical data calibrate such a construction without independently proving its assumed ceiling or distribution of fluctuations.