3,673 works, 150 years of economic thought. Each one summarized and searchable, with cited passages inside.
Economic variables may move together, but how can that dependence enter a stochastic model rather than appear only as a correlation after estimation? Gerhard Tintner and R. Narayanan answer by allowing events to change several variables simultaneously: shared increments become the source of covariance. Their compact article connects this mathematical construction to post-war United States gross national product and private consumer expenditures, culminating in a joint uncertainty ellipse for a 1965 forecast. The distinctive payoff is a concrete link between assumptions about shared events and the shape of forecast uncertainty. Readers can also examine the limits of that link: the constant-parameter application permits only upward increments, while the supplied observations include declines. The model offers a tractable account of interdependent trends, not a causal explanation of output and consumption.