The archive.

A peace settlement cannot credibly restrain defeated states if the victors refuse equivalent restraints themselves. In this 1939 letter to The Spectator, republished in 1997, Friedrich August von Hayek argues for an immediate Anglo-French federation as a practical pledge of British commitment to Europe. His case joins two problems often treated separately: the vulnerability of minorities to national economic policy, even under democratic government, and France’s reasonable fear that a Central European federation would reinforce German predominance. Drawing on Central Europe’s mixed populations, Hayek challenges the hope that better borders alone could secure peace. This brief intervention shows why he regarded voluntary limits on British and French sovereignty not as a concession to follow victory, but as a condition for a settlement others could accept on equal terms.

To analyze business cycles, this first volume of Schumpeter's 1939 study contends, is to analyze the whole economic process of the capitalist era, not some detachable pathology bolted onto an otherwise placid system. Progress itself unstabilizes: innovation, carried out by new firms drawing on bank-created credit, repeatedly knocks the economy away from equilibrium and forces the recessions that absorb it. Weaving theory, statistics, and history, he organizes the record around three superimposed waves, Kondratieff, Juglar, and Kitchin, and reads railroadization as the paradigm of long-gestation innovation. A secondary wave of speculation and debt, engaging Fisher's debt-deflation, explains why some depressions turn abnormal and destructive. The volume closes with dense historical outlines from 1787 to 1913 across England, Germany, and the United States, following cotton, steam, steel, and electrification.

Revival is the last and not the first phase of a cycle.

Where the theory was built, this second volume turns to the evidence — prices, output, employment, commodity markets, deposits, loans, and interest — reading every series as the trace of an evolutionary mechanism rather than a barometer that speaks for itself. Schumpeter's method is deliberately anti-barometric: no single index reveals the cycle's true shape, and the Kondratieff–Juglar–Kitchin schema must be used historically, never mechanically. The financial chapters refuse to crown interest as the master cause: it saturates capitalist calculation yet is fundamentally consequential, causal only in a secondary sense, and entrepreneurial demand for credit moves rates before rates move anything. He dissolves the rigid money-market/capital-market divide, denies any secular law of declining interest, and rejects the Hayek–Mises–Hawtrey claim that bank-initiated cheap money originates the cycle.

In this sense interest may indeed be said to hold a central position in the system.

A federation of formerly sovereign states can secure peace, this German-language essay argues, only as an economic union — yet that union disables much of the nation-state's interventionist repertoire and cannot simply hand it to a federal center. Free movement of goods, labor, and capital turns the federation into a single price area, stripping member states of tariffs, monopolies, and independent monetary policy. But protectionism cannot migrate upward either: the solidarities that sell a tariff as aid to "our" producers dissolve among peoples who share no thick common identity, and the same thinness defeats central planning, which presupposes agreement no diverse union possesses. The federation needs only a negative power — to stop states from rebuilding economic borders, not to plan in their place. Federalism, Hayek concludes, completes liberalism rather than enlarging the state.

Das Bundesgebiet wird ein einziger Markt und die Preise in seinen Teilen werden nur um den Betrag der Transportkosten differieren.

English translation: “The federal territory becomes a single market, and prices in its parts will differ only by the amount of transport costs.”

Remembered by his contemporaries as a banker, abolitionist, and Evangelical of the Clapham circle rather than as an economist, Henry Thornton is here restored by Hayek to the front rank of monetary thought. The introduction to Thornton's Paper Credit of Great Britain reads the 1802 treatise as the point where classical monetary analysis begins, born of the crises of 1793 and 1797 and the Bank Restriction. Hayek credits Thornton with distinguishing internal from external drains, anticipating both liquidity preference and Wicksell's separation of the market and natural rates of interest, and framing the doctrine of forced saving. Against the reduction of everything to over-issue, and against Ricardo's later narrowing, the case is made for a disciplined practical banker who theorized the credit system from within.

“We are all City people and connected with merchants, and nothing but merchants on every side”

Germany's colonies, stripped away at Versailles and held under mandate, are the immediate provocation of this 1939 study, which recasts their loss as economic strangulation rather than wounded vanity. Yet Thurnwald's ambition is systematic: colonization as a recurring human phenomenon, older than capitalism, whose methods he compares across Portuguese slave-raiding, the Spanish encomienda among the Maya of Yucatán, the Dutch cultivation system in Java, the French Code noir and St. Domingue, and British expansion from Virginia to the Gezira cotton scheme. His own Deutsch-Neu-Guinea supplies the opening case, from Rabaul's plantations to goldfields opened by aircraft. He rejects a purely Marxist reading of empire, frames expansion as a biological and social movement of peoples, and ties its future to National Socialist colonial policy.

Kolonisation gehört zu den großen bewegenden und Geschichte schaffenden Kräften der menschlichen Gemeinschaften aller Völker und Zeiten.

English translation: “Colonization belongs among the great moving and history-making forces of human communities in all peoples and ages.”

Hayek’s objection to Keynes’s wartime financing proposal begins with agreement: compulsory savings could restrain civilian spending more fairly and efficiently than inflation. In this short 1939 article, republished here in 1997, the dispute turns instead on what happens when those savings become repayable. Keynes envisages releasing deposits during a postwar slump; Hayek asks whether Parliament could withstand demands for repayment when increased spending would be dangerous. The article offers a concrete encounter between economic design and political pressure, rather than a rehearsal of their wider theoretical disagreements. Hayek’s tentative alternative—converting savers’ government claims into interests in industrial capital—sharpens the central question: how can a workable wartime policy avoid creating an unstable peacetime obligation?

Discarding observations can make a statistical test more defensible. In this 1939 mathematical note, Gerhard Tintner confronts a difficulty in time-series analysis: successive differencing may remove a smooth trend, but it also creates correlations even when the original errors are independent. His response is to select differences built from disjoint observations, allowing their variances to be compared using familiar significance tests. He applies the same selection principle to lagged products in deriving a serial-covariance distribution. The note offers a precise encounter with the trade-off between retaining information and securing a tractable sampling distribution. Readers can see how the observations chosen determine which tests become available—and why the assumptions of normality, independence and a sufficiently smooth trend matter.

The multiplier, in Keynes and Kahn, arrives as a timeless ratio linking investment to income; Machlup's 1939 intervention insists it can only be understood as a dated process. Public wages become shop receipts, which become factory receipts, which only later become incomes to be spent again — and between the rounds lie inventories, pay dates, and spending habits. He builds an 'income propagation period,' tentatively about three months, to measure how long expenditure takes to become income anew, and shows that a higher propensity to consume yields a larger eventual multiple but a longer road to it, so a government minding the coming fiscal year may collect only a fraction. Leakages, he adds, need not mean hoarding; saved funds may repay debt or buy securities, deferring rather than destroying the next round of spending.

For a discussion of time lags, transition phases, and other intertemporal relationships, Keynesian terminology is not well suited.

Rearmament makes some materials urgently scarce—but which civilian uses should surrender them? In this 1939 magazine article, republished in 1997, Friedrich August von Hayek argues that ranking industries by national importance cannot answer that question: an essential industry may substitute cheaply, while a less essential one may consume far more resources to replace the same input. Through exchanges of tin and copper, he shows how relative prices can reveal sacrifices that administrative quotas conceal. His objection to rationing rests not on officials’ incompetence, but on the production alternatives they would need to know. The article connects this informational problem to military choices between competing supplies, while leaving questions of equity and government finance unresolved. It offers a precise account of why wartime urgency, in Hayek’s view, makes economic calculation more necessary rather than less.

The Ricardo Effect anchors this revision of Hayek's trade-cycle theory: when consumer-goods prices rise while money wages stay fixed, falling real wages make short-period, labour-using methods far more profitable than durable machinery, and firms retreat from the more capitalistic techniques. The result overturns the acceleration principle, for a rise in consumer demand can shrink demand for capital goods. Granting Keynes his unemployment and sticky wages, Hayek still rejects aggregate demand as a sufficient guide; he disaggregates capital into a vertical hierarchy of stage-specific industries and introduces the 'Quotient' to measure how slowly investment yields consumer goods. A boom ends not when all resources are employed but when the structure of production outruns the flow of goods, exposing a scarcity of capital whatever the money rate of interest does.

It is a cumulative process, indeed an explosive process, leading further and further away from an equilibrium position till the stresses become so strong that it collapses.

Why does construction sometimes continue when rental returns no longer justify building? In this 1940 article, Karl Pribram connects urban ground rent to the institutions that finance development. Location alone, he argues, cannot explain the returns commanded by urban land: changing construction costs, rentals, and interest rates can generate rent even on sites without special advantages. His comparison of European and American building cycles turns on whether these returns actually govern investment. Elastic mortgage credit and expectations of appreciation can sustain construction after yields deteriorate, leaving oversupply and foreclosed properties to obstruct recovery. The article offers a precise way to distinguish rising property values from rising land rent—and to examine why measures that facilitate housing finance may also weaken restraints on speculative building.